Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:56:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C1 0xc180…066a crypto 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$205 (+8%) realized +$109 · open +$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate63%59W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$6
other 31% +$126
world 8% +$36
sports 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.7% -12.0% 75% 50% +10.5%
≤30d 16 -23.6% -30.9% 56% 44% +5.9%
≤90d 94 -9.6% -18.2% 63% 51% -6.3%
all 94 -9.6% -18.2% 63% 51% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 51% -6.3%
10% -26.1% 37% -15.2%
15% -33.2% 26% -23.4%
20% -39.8% 16% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$555
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses59 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)94 / 99
History coverage71d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $237 $375 +$138 (+58%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $200 $169 −$30 (-15%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $151 +$10 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $82 +$45 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 02 $96 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 02 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 02 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $128 +$29 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 28 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 28 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 27 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $33 +$3 +9%
Will Lanús win Copa Libertadores? May 27 $29 −$24 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 23 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 23 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 23 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 23 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 23 $22 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 23 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 23 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 23 $28 −$25 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 23 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 22 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 22 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 22 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 22 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 22 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 19 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 17 $95 −$15 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 17 $97 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $153 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $161 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $151 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $82 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $82 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $36 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $106 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $96 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $91 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.92 · official $554.98 (match) · 399 history records