Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc17e…b39a other 1392 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$345 (-2%) realized −$355 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%440W / 948L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$405
sports 30% +$133
crypto 10% −$143
world 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -27.9% -34.8% 21% 20% -5.5%
≤30d 161 -34.0% -40.3% 14% 13% -8.1%
≤90d 1116 -29.3% -36.0% 24% 23% -16.5%
all 1388 -8.3% -17.1% 32% 30% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 30% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 27% -19.4%
15% -32.2% 24% -27.2%
20% -38.9% 20% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$355
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses440 / 948
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1388 / 1392
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $75 $93 +$18 (+24%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-38%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 432 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $13 +$47 +373%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$34 -66%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $130 −$2 -1%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$93 +46%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 +$18 +864%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$29 +29%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$19 -19%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $26 −$19 -73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $122 +$98 +80%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +203%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$25 +24%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 +$70 +1139%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $304 +$34 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 88¢ $49 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 87¢ $48 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 87¢ $32 3h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 88¢ $130 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $13 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.70 · official $66.22 · 3500 history records