Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc17e…d497 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$62 (+7%) realized +$185 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$178
crypto 30% +$121
world 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +30.1% +17.7% 30% 30% -3.1%
≤30d 10 +30.1% +17.7% 30% 30% -3.1%
≤90d 10 +30.1% +17.7% 30% 30% -3.1%
all 10 +30.1% +17.7% 30% 30% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 30% -3.1%
10% +6.4% 30% -12.4%
15% -3.9% 30% -20.9%
20% -13.3% 30% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$47 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized+$185
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 48¢ $200 $128 −$72 (-36%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $21 +$164 +793%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 +$60 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $249 +$151 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $202 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $103 27h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $72 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $400 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $249 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.84 · official $154.10 · 23 history records