Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc17d…42e3 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$246 (-11%) realized −$237 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%2W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$956now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$14
crypto 31% −$209
politics 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-68.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 2 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 49 -64.9% -68.3% 4% 4% -50.7%
all 49 -64.9% -68.3% 4% 4% -50.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.3% 4% -50.7%
10% -71.3% 4% -55.4%
15% -74.1% 4% -59.7%
20% -76.6% 4% -63.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -78% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$956
Realized−$237
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses2 / 47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage36d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $714 $709 −$6 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$6 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $126 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 16 $98 −$93 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 16 $16 −$15 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 16 $11 +$27 +252%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 15 $1 +$11 +1074%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $735 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $257 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $96 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $124 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $126 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $471 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $126 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $154 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $514 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $98 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $16 35d
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $7 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 35d
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 35d
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 35d
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $7 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $9 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $955.77 · official $955.77 (match) · 84 history records