Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc179…5198 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
other 24% −$4
politics 9% $0
sports 9% +$7
crypto 5% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 23% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 23% 0% -9.9%
all 42 -7.4% -16.2% 33% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 5% -9.4%
10% -24.2% 5% -18.1%
15% -31.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -38.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage470d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $69 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $81 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $38 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $9 −$1 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $77 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $19 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $18 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $14 +$5 +33%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 18? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 17 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 11 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $22 $0 +1%
Coastal Carolina vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 06 $13 +$9 +67%
Will Hakeem Jeffries applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Marquette vs. UConn Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'NATO' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $12 $0 -2%
Nebraska vs. Ohio State Mar 04 $14 $0 -3%
Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $14 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $37 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $37 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $37 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $38 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $40 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $40 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $5 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $5 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $40 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records