Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc179…5cde weather 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-6%) realized −$185 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%64W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$165
14 days−$163
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% −$219
crypto 18% −$31
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -12.6% -20.9% 33% 30% -18.9%
≤30d 147 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 37% -15.2%
≤90d 147 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 37% -15.2%
all 147 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 37% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 37% -15.2%
10% -23.4% 32% -23.3%
15% -30.8% 24% -30.7%
20% -37.6% 17% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$185
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses64 / 83
Open positions3
Markets (closed)147 / 150
History coverage21d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 25? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $82 −$67 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $57 −$51 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $72 +$96 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 22? Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 22? Jun 22 $52 +$96 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 22 $16 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 22 $10 +$28 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 +$70 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 −$46 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 −$5 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 20? Jun 20 $52 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $52 −$15 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 19? Jun 19 $134 +$89 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $114 −$74 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$60 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $84 −$23 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $66 +$18 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$15 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 +$29 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $41 +$52 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 −$39 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$96 +918%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$19 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +211%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $19 +$105 +567%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? SELL Yes 35¢ $61 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 25? SELL Yes 49¢ $81 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 25? BUY Yes 47¢ $82 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25? BUY Yes 34¢ $62 25h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 31¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $72 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? SELL Yes 25¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 32¢ $37 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? BUY Yes 40¢ $52 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.88 · official $101.88 (match) · 384 history records