Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc178…eeb8 politics 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 697d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate15%7W / 40L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$519now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$23
other 12% +$41
economics 12% −$7
world 12% −$12
tech 9% $0
sports 1% −$36
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -31.0% -37.6% 0% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 8 +7.4% -2.8% 12% 12% -7.3%
≤90d 15 +0.0% -9.5% 13% 13% -9.2%
all 47 -34.0% -40.3% 15% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.3% 6% -10.0%
10% -46.0% 6% -18.6%
15% -51.2% 6% -26.5%
20% -56.0% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -52% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

697d coverage
Net worth$519
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses7 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage697d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $519 $519 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 26 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$14 -98%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Jun 25 $82 −$20 -24%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $66 −$3 -5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $42 +$78 +188%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $400 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $437 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 26 $424 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $150 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $460 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $445 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $42 −$41 -98%
Bulls vs. Nets Feb 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 10? Feb 09 $8 −$8 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 09 $26 +$2 +6%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $250 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $5 $0 +3%
Live audience at Trump/Harris debate? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $85m and $95m opening wee Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Kamala positive favorability by Sunday? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $680 −$2 -0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' record September opening? Jan 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Jan 20 $680 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump post 36-40 times this week? Sep 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump lead by 1 or more points on August 16? Sep 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump post 41-45 times this week? Sep 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 120-129? Aug 14 $1 +$1 +100%
Fed rate cut by July 31? Aug 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Danas Rapsys (LTU) win Gold in Men's 200m Freestyle? Aug 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Junxuan Yang (CHN) win Gold in Women's 200m Freestyle? Aug 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will any other Republican Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Jul 29 $676 −$1 -0%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Jul 29 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 29 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? Jul 29 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $655 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $519 54m
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $539 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $539 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 4¢ $1 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 14h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? SELL Yes 32¢ $62 19h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY Yes 41¢ $82 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $44 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $44 5d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 32¢ $63 7d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $42 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $399 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $400 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 91¢ $113 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 91¢ $8 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 91¢ $315 23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 91¢ $437 23d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $205 30d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $218 37d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $207 37d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $218 37d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 70¢ $35 37d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $109 37d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $150 37d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $109 38d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $109 38d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 38d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $109 38d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $460 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.22 · official $519.22 (match) · 127 history records