trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET | Down | 5¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET | Up | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 25-31? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Jun 12 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? | May 26 | $2 | −$2 | -94% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 25-31? | May 26 | $3 | −$3 | -94% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | May 26 | $2 | −$1 | -30% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $1 | −$1 | -78% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? | May 26 | $3 | −$2 | -74% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | May 26 | $3 | $0 | -1% |
| SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? | May 26 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | May 26 | $7 | +$4 | +58% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET | May 24 | $6 | −$6 | -96% |
| Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | May 24 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 21 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19? | May 19 | $7 | +$3 | +37% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET | May 17 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.5% | -10.0% | 0% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -45.4% | -50.6% | 27% | 13% | -23.2% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -45.4% | -50.6% | 27% | 13% | -23.2% |
| all | 15 | -45.4% | -50.6% | 27% | 13% | -23.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -50.6% | 13% | -23.2% |
| 10% | -55.3% | 13% | -30.6% |
| 15% | -59.7% | 13% | -37.3% |
| 20% | -63.6% | 7% | -43.4% |