Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc177…98cc other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23 (-9%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$8
crypto 47% −$21
sports 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -58.3% -62.2% 8% 8% -56.6%
≤30d 13 -58.3% -62.2% 8% 8% -56.6%
≤90d 62 -17.4% -25.3% 48% 45% -21.8%
all 62 -17.4% -25.3% 48% 45% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 45% -21.8%
10% -32.4% 35% -29.2%
15% -38.9% 26% -36.1%
20% -44.9% 23% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage58d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 14 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 14 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 14 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 14 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 14 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 14 $7 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 14 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 14 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +121%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $4 +$3 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 $0 +21%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 $0 +13%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $6 −$6 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 +$1 +23%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $4 −$4 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 +$4 +73%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 01 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $2 +$3 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.94 · official $3.94 (match) · 163 history records