Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc177…5547 politics 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$13
politics 38% −$14
sports 12% +$18
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 121 +4.0% -5.9% 11% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 4% -9.6%
10% -14.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -23.1% 2% -26.1%
20% -30.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)121 / 124
History coverage130d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $229 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $288 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $243 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $240 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 22 $258 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $256 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $306 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $435 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $290 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $276 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $257 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $213 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $27 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $212 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $286 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $487 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $286 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 21h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 27h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 41h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 3d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 3d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 24d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 24d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 24d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 25d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 25d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 25d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 25d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 25d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $288 27d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $288 29d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 29d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 30d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $216 31d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $216 31d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $240 31d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $240 32d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $258 33d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $258 33d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $256 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.94 · official $115.94 (match) · 354 history records