Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc174…66f2 sports 909 markets active 1h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13,250 (-3%) realized −$13,250 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate84%762W / 147L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$552per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$375est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$282
7 days−$1,189
14 days−$900
30 days−$691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$13,641
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -0.5% -10.0% 72% 48% -17.6%
≤30d 80 +3.0% -6.8% 78% 51% -11.9%
≤90d 237 +2.1% -7.6% 83% 42% -13.7%
all 909 -0.2% -9.7% 84% 35% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 35% -12.0%
10% -18.4% 19% -20.4%
15% -26.3% 9% -28.1%
20% -33.5% 4% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$368 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13,250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses762 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$375
Open positions0
Markets (closed)909 / 909
History coverage563d
Avg bet$552
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 909 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $157 −$36 -23%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $99 +$21 +21%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $216 −$167 -77%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 17 $190 +$21 +11%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $210 +$6 +3%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $145 +$45 +31%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $127 +$18 +15%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $118 +$8 +7%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $104 +$13 +13%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $435 −$430 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $396 +$39 +10%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $369 +$27 +7%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $272 +$97 +36%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $227 +$45 +20%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $215 +$11 +5%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $156 +$60 +38%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $128 +$28 +22%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $261 −$233 -89%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $141 +$6 +4%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $228 +$28 +12%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $234 −$6 -2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $241 −$7 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $134 +$106 +79%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $471 −$437 -93%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $389 +$83 +21%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $313 +$76 +24%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $590 −$33 -6%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $1,165 −$545 -47%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $707 +$184 +26%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $563 +$144 +26%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $490 +$73 +15%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $457 +$33 +7%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $307 +$149 +48%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $293 +$15 +5%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $270 +$23 +8%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $231 +$39 +17%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $218 +$13 +6%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $10 +$1 +15%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $137 +$80 +58%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $98 +$39 +40%
Modena: Tamara Zidansek vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 11 $304 −$130 -43%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $214 +$13 +6%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $128 +$86 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $638 −$510 -80%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $251 −$250 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $314 −$35 -11%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan Jun 10 $906 +$18 +2%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $52 +$4 +8%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $706 +$195 +28%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $674 +$32 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Fiona Ferro 87¢ $37 1h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze SELL Ekaterine Gorgodze 14¢ $37 1h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 44¢ $120 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 100¢ $120 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 82¢ $99 3h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva SELL Julia Grabher 22¢ $49 4h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 95¢ $216 4h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $4 22h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $212 22h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 97¢ $210 22h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson SELL Fiona Ferro 99¢ $211 23h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Fiona Ferro 89¢ $190 24h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama SELL Anastasia Kulikova 99¢ $190 24h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Anastasia Kulikova 75¢ $145 25h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea SELL Jennifer Ruggeri 99¢ $145 25h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Jennifer Ruggeri 86¢ $127 25h
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru SELL Miriam Bulgaru 100¢ $127 25h
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru BUY Miriam Bulgaru 93¢ $118 26h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge SELL Elena Micic 99¢ $118 26h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Elena Micic 87¢ $104 26h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa SELL Deborah Chiesa $5 27h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 88¢ $435 27h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $435 36h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 91¢ $396 37h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 100¢ $396 38h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 93¢ $369 39h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva SELL Susan Bandecchi 100¢ $369 46h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Susan Bandecchi 73¢ $272 46h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio SELL Ekaterine Gorgodze 99¢ $272 46h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 82¢ $227 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2286 history records