Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:05:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C1 0xc173…b6e5 other 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 778d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$768 (+6%) realized +$732 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$817now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$63
sports 17% +$166
culture 12% −$332
politics 12% +$35
economics 4% −$483
crypto 2% −$215
world 1% −$2
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +32.4% +19.8% 100% 100% +14.9%
≤90d 17 -22.5% -29.9% 53% 47% -10.5%
all 73 -36.6% -42.6% 40% 34% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 34% -16.3%
10% -48.1% 30% -24.3%
15% -53.1% 22% -31.6%
20% -57.7% 15% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$78 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

778d coverage
Net worth$817
Realized+$732
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage778d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 70¢ $650 $684 +$34 (+5%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 30¢ $131 $133 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $335 +$131 +39%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $473 +$77 +16%
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 22 $66 +$28 +42%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $164 −$160 -98%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $116 −$111 -96%
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $42 −$40 -96%
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $82 +$52 +64%
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $132 +$68 +52%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $52 −$50 -95%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 07 $66 −$66 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 05 $100 +$47 +47%
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 05 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 05 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 24 $78 +$99 +127%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 10 $37 −$37 -100%
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $62 +$38 +61%
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? Feb 27 $96 +$21 +22%
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Zalgiris Kaunas Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of January? Jan 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios Dec 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Barcelona Dec 27 $528 +$352 +67%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 23 $489 −$483 -99%
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 09 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 08 $173 +$521 +301%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid Dec 04 $18 +$33 +186%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv Dec 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Nov 21 $30 +$23 +75%
Panathinaikos vs. BC Dubai Nov 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Clippers vs. Magic Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 08 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 08 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 08 $497 +$52 +10%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 01 $92 −$92 -100%
Vanderbilt vs. Texas Nov 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-28? Oct 31 $75 +$39 +52%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $100 +$24 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Oct 28 $30 +$24 +79%
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 26 $200 $0 -0%
Over $4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 26 $100 +$3 +4%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 26 $20 −$10 -49%
Solana all time high before 2026? Aug 31 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in August? Aug 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 21 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 21 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 21 $300 +$100 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $7 3m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $41 4m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $1 42m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $8 42m
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $15 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $3 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $57 1h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $10 9d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $324 9d
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $319 9d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 56¢ $164 35d
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 48¢ $3 36d
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 48¢ $2 36d
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 48¢ $2 36d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $10 36d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $0 36d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $0 36d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 36d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $0 36d
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $10 37d
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $31 37d
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 42¢ $36 38d
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 42¢ $1 38d
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 42¢ $2 38d
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 42¢ $32 38d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $52 39d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 66¢ $47 44d
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 66¢ $19 45d
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 69¢ $66 45d
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY No 20¢ $15 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $817.09 · official $817.09 (match) · 245 history records