trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $32 | $32 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 11 | $54 | −$5 | -8% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 09 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 09 | $34 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 08 | $34 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 26 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W | Apr 25 | $101 | −$18 | -18% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Apr 23 | $98 | $0 | +0% |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Apr 14 | $146 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 11 | $294 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $293 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $267 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 10 | $267 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 10 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on February 26? | Mar 04 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on February 26? | Feb 25 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Everton win on 2025-02-26? | Feb 25 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Billy Donovan make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall | Feb 24 | $3 | +$2 | +49% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on January 25? | Feb 05 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Mungo vs. MINH | Jan 25 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? | Jan 25 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| RASMR vs. Threadguy | Jan 24 | $8 | $0 | -2% |
| Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? | Jan 22 | $7 | +$4 | +62% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-01-14? | Jan 15 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -1.7% | -11.1% | 20% | 0% | -11.7% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -1.7% | -11.1% | 20% | 0% | -11.7% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 14% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 24 | -9.0% | -17.7% | 21% | 8% | -11.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.7% | 8% | -11.2% |
| 10% | -25.5% | 8% | -19.7% |
| 15% | -32.7% | 8% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -39.3% | 4% | -34.6% |