Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:16:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc173…ba9c other 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,253 (-2%) realized −$2,253 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate29%34W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,101per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$859now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$215
politics 35% −$54
sports 16% −$2,421
world 2% −$1
economics 2% −$4
crypto 2% +$5
culture 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -16.2% -24.2% 6% 0% -12.6%
all 118 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 10% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 10% -11.2%
10% -17.8% 10% -19.7%
15% -25.7% 8% -27.4%
20% -33.0% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,486) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$33 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$859
Realized−$2,253
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses34 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,101
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $858 $859 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $516 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $307 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $1,243 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,122 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $132 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,675 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $669 +$1 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $2,505 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,018 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,301 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,445 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,391 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,642 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $1,273 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $2,736 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $1,960 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $1,009 +$3 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $679 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $5,779 −$7 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $2,055 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,365 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $5,684 −$9 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $307 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $218 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 10 $1,508 −$1,508 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 07 $71 $0 +0%
Real Oviedo vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Mar 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $515 14m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $516 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $306 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $307 3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $858 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,484 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,486 5d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,242 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,243 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,508 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,511 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,653 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,655 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,512 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,514 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,569 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,572 8d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,514 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,516 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $919 14d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $920 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,597 16d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,599 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,035 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,036 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $131 16d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $882 17d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $883 17d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,191 17d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,192 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $858.58 · official $858.58 (match) · 378 history records