Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc171…5cb3 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$123 (-19%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$97
world 20% +$27
other 14% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -12.6% -21.0% 33% 22% -15.9%
≤30d 12 -3.3% -12.5% 42% 33% -7.4%
≤90d 32 -30.8% -37.4% 31% 25% -29.9%
all 32 -30.8% -37.4% 31% 25% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 25% -29.9%
10% -43.4% 19% -36.6%
15% -48.9% 12% -42.8%
20% -53.9% 12% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage66d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$6 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $45 +$24 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$24 +121%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -68%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $25 +$5 +21%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $63 +$8 +12%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: April May 02 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi? Apr 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 17 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$25 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 17 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 17 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $31 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $30 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records