Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc16d…87a4 crypto 147 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate61%89W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day154.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -0.7% -10.1% 56% 44% -10.1%
≤30d 147 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 42% -10.5%
≤90d 147 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 42% -10.5%
all 147 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 42% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 42% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 6% -19.1%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses89 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day154.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 294 history records