Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C1 0xc16b…6d4f crypto 891 markets active 7d ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,125 (-10%) realized −$1,125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate32%412W / 867L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day121.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$229
other 0% −$15
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 529 -70.2% -73.0% 14% 9% -65.9%
≤30d 1279 -32.5% -38.9% 32% 23% -27.7%
≤90d 1279 -32.5% -38.9% 32% 23% -27.7%
all 1279 -32.5% -38.9% 32% 23% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.9% 23% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -44.8% 17% -34.6%
15% -50.1% 12% -40.9%
20% -55.0% 8% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses412 / 867
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1279 / 891
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day121.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1279 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -3912%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -670%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in March? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -3258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records