Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc169…4d89 crypto 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$72 (+4%) realized +$59 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%34W / 41L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$49
14 days+$305
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$20
crypto 32% −$10
sports 28% +$289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.8% +4.8% 42% 42% -18.3%
≤30d 75 +5.1% -4.9% 45% 45% +15.5%
≤90d 75 +5.1% -4.9% 45% 45% +15.5%
all 75 +5.1% -4.9% 45% 45% +15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 45% +15.5%
10% -14.0% 37% +4.4%
15% -22.3% 35% -5.7%
20% -29.9% 31% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses34 / 41
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 83
History coverage30d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $139 $151 +$12 (+9%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 74¢ 74¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$29 -28%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$12 +243%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$39 +64%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$20 +198%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $42 −$31 -74%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $111 +$49 +44%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $72 −$71 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 +$47 +77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 +$26 +178%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Jun 20 $114 +$265 +231%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $125 −$12 -10%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $90 +$36 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$5 +484%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +30%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $11 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 74¢ $97 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $74 8h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY 24¢ $25 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY 7¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 BUY 11¢ $10 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 24¢ $50 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 35¢ $102 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portuga BUY 16¢ $10 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $100 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $61 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 92¢ $30 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 11¢ $11 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $37 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $160 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $111 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 46¢ $57 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $59 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $72 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.36 · official $248.36 (match) · 191 history records