Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc169…cb6a sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$111 (+7%) realized +$61 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$199
other 8% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -8.1% -16.8% 45% 45% -7.1%
≤30d 44 -8.1% -16.8% 45% 45% -7.1%
≤90d 44 -8.1% -16.8% 45% 45% -7.1%
all 44 -8.1% -16.8% 45% 45% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 45% -7.1%
10% -24.8% 45% -16.0%
15% -32.1% 45% -24.1%
20% -38.7% 43% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$28 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage4d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 52¢ 96¢ $35 $64 +$29 (+84%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Over 44¢ 69¢ $35 $55 +$20 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $42 +$21 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $37 +$22 +62%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $37 −$35 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $42 +$37 +87%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $47 +$59 +126%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 +$27 +66%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $32 +$66 +211%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $42 +$50 +118%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $42 +$23 +56%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $37 +$52 +142%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$29 -95%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $33 −$32 -96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $32 −$30 -95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $37 +$29 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $23 −$22 -96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 −$10 -47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 −$53 -95%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $37 −$35 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $37 +$26 +70%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $42 +$26 +62%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 +$56 +215%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$23 +91%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $36 +$20 +54%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $32 −$30 -95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$75 +149%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $37 −$35 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 −$40 -96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $41 −$39 -96%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $31 +$32 +103%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $28 +$17 +62%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$34 +135%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $26 +$14 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $37 29m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 44¢ $37 32m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $62 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $42 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $37 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $37 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $78 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $42 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $106 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $47 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 6h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $98 6h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $32 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $42 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 99¢ $91 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $65 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 59¢ $42 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $21 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $89 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 42¢ $42 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $37 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $30 28h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 46¢ $33 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $32 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $65 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $23 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $11 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $21 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.55 · official $117.82 · 73 history records