Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc166…7c15 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$527 (+16%) realized +$496 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate64%47W / 26L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$365
14 days+$428
30 days+$744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$111
sports 31% +$551
crypto 30% −$6
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.6% -2.7% 50% 50% +39.2%
≤30d 45 +17.7% +6.5% 53% 53% +21.9%
≤90d 73 +6.7% -3.4% 64% 44% +12.9%
all 73 +6.7% -3.4% 64% 44% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 44% +12.9%
10% -12.7% 34% +2.1%
15% -21.1% 30% -7.8%
20% -28.8% 26% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$28 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized+$496
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses47 / 26
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)73 / 83
History coverage33d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $77 $102 +$25 (+33%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe Jun 20 $51 +$86 +170%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $101 +$70 +69%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$50 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$41 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 +$39 +97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$41 +81%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$31 +103%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 +$22 +213%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -26%
Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$31 +596%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $61 +$69 +114%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $72 −$70 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $101 −$74 -73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 09 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $102 +$163 +160%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $17 −$16 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $102 +$37 +36%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $253 +$185 +73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 30 $101 −$72 -71%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $155 +$145 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 22 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 30¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 64¢ $303 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe BUY 36¢ $51 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $76 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $51 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 58¢ $101 43h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 43h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Will Portugal win on BUY 48¢ $25 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $41 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 5d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $9 5d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $5 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $41 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $41 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $92 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes $5 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $62 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.42 · official $778.55 · 155 history records