Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C1 0xc165…61a9 sports 316 markets active 4h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%186W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$189
14 days+$14
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$311
other 13% +$191
politics 1% +$11
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -22.8% -30.2% 54% 52% -25.2%
≤30d 139 +7.5% -2.7% 61% 55% -15.2%
≤90d 288 +1.3% -8.4% 61% 54% -12.7%
all 299 +5.8% -4.3% 62% 56% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 56% -10.3%
10% -13.4% 46% -18.8%
15% -21.8% 30% -26.7%
20% -29.5% 23% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$28 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses186 / 113
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions16
Markets (closed)299 / 316
History coverage119d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 74¢ $42 $37 −$4 (-10%)
Will Bukayo Saka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 50¢ $34 $25 −$9 (-26%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 78¢ $20 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 80¢ 78¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+13%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 66¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $77 +$19 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $14 +$11 +78%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $12 +$4 +37%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$14 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 +$35 +101%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $66 +$18 +28%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Raphinha: 3+ shots Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$28 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$13 +109%
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $17 +$8 +50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $12 +$13 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Son Heungmin: 1+ shots Jun 12 $12 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $21 +$9 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $17 +$8 +44%
Patrik Schick: 1+ shots Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $58 −$58 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $16 +$8 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $18 +$8 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $42 +$7 +17%
Hwang Heechan: 1+ shots Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $75 +$9 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 −$24 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $16 +$4 +27%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $24 +$13 +53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $19 +$6 +33%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $34 +$22 +64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $21 +$4 +20%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $96 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 26¢ $26 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $77 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 14¢ $14 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $0 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $5 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 88¢ $15 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 88¢ $1 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $7 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $10 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $5 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $15 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $4 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $12 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $69 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 94¢ $70 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $35 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 44¢ $11 3d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 69¢ $17 3d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 82¢ $4 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $14 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY 35¢ $25 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $21 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $84 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 65¢ $8 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $66 4d
Raphinha: 3+ shots BUY Yes 64¢ $16 4d
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots BUY Yes 65¢ $16 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.27 · official $256.52 (match) · 1131 history records