Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc164…ff9e sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$360 (-8%) realized −$360 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate15%5W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$935now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$9
sports 11% −$354
other 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 34 -22.3% -29.7% 15% 6% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 6% -18.6%
10% -36.4% 6% -26.4%
15% -42.6% 6% -33.5%
20% -48.2% 3% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$935
Realized−$360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses5 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage622d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $529 $529 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $406 $406 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,016 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Blue Jays vs. Rays Sep 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Tigers vs. White Sox Aug 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Teodor Nițulescu win the Romanian presidential election? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $2 $0 -1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 08 $7 $0 +2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $4 $0 -1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 02 $5 $0 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Dec 30 $103 −$103 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 27 $116 −$116 -100%
South Florida vs. San José State Dec 26 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Pearse Doherty be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Dec 24 $3 −$2 -67%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Dec 04 $21 −$21 -100%
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner Oct 16 $55 +$26 +47%
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3 Oct 07 $29 +$19 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $406 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $529 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $485 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $528 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $486 4h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $529 4h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,015 4h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,016 16h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,019 16h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 22h
Blue Jays vs. Rays BUY Rays 51¢ $8 274d
Tigers vs. White Sox BUY White Sox 46¢ $8 308d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 359d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $5 400d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $5 400d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 402d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 405d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 406d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 406d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $5 407d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 407d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 408d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 409d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $5 411d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 412d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 98¢ $5 413d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 99¢ $5 414d
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL No 92¢ $5 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $934.53 · official $934.53 (match) · 71 history records