Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc162…40bb sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$465 (-3%) realized −$479 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%55W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$557
7 days+$336
14 days+$296
30 days+$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$187
other 32% −$236
world 11% +$94
politics 5% −$621
crypto 2% +$46
tech 1% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +7.5% -2.8% 62% 58% +9.5%
≤30d 75 -3.9% -13.0% 52% 49% -7.8%
≤90d 82 -2.8% -12.0% 54% 51% -7.0%
all 109 -4.2% -13.3% 50% 48% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 48% -12.7%
10% -21.6% 42% -21.1%
15% -29.2% 31% -28.7%
20% -36.1% 26% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$81 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$393
Realized−$479
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses55 / 54
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions7
Markets (closed)109 / 117
History coverage260d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 35¢ 50¢ $80 $113 +$33 (+41%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $49 $63 +$14 (+28%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 60¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners Under 59¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners Jun 15 $53 +$77 +146%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $51 +$39 +76%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $142 +$132 +93%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$107 +141%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $101 +$33 +33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $48 +$44 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $98 −$40 -41%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $61 +$35 +58%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 14 $30 +$14 +46%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 +$6 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $42 +$17 +42%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 13 $141 +$150 +106%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$33 +65%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $102 −$99 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $59 −$58 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $57 −$56 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $100 −$98 -98%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $101 +$58 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $79 +$24 +31%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 07 $66 +$12 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $94 −$28 -29%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $50 −$6 -13%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $92 −$42 -46%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 01 $295 −$293 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $115 −$113 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $203 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $531 +$185 +35%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $802 −$136 -17%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IF Brommapojkarna win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $202 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $202 −$200 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $384 +$231 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $41 +$39 +97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $403 +$123 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $194 −$190 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $304 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $82 57m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 59¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 1h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 56¢ $51 7h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 69¢ $30 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 8.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $53 11h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $20 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 21h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 18¢ $20 21h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $10 21h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 22h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 41¢ $76 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $48 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 75¢ $101 30h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 31¢ $58 31h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 50¢ $98 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $142 44h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 44h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 44h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 19¢ $25 45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 51¢ $108 45h
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Fury 68¢ $30 45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $59 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $102 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $42 46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $141 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $393.39 · official $393.39 (match) · 214 history records