Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C1 0xc160…139a crypto 1646 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$263 (-15%) realized −$263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%358W / 788L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day48.6pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$47
14 days+$195
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$256
other 17% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +48.4% +34.2% 57% 57% +36.9%
≤30d 956 +18.5% +7.2% 27% 27% +10.1%
≤90d 1146 +15.2% +4.2% 31% 31% +5.9%
all 1146 +15.2% +4.2% 31% 31% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.2% 31% +5.9%
10% ← realistic here -5.8% 31% -4.2%
15% -14.9% 30% -13.5%
20% -23.2% 28% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses358 / 788
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1146 / 1646
History coverage34d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1146 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +146%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +280%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +208%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +331%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +181%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +190%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +181%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +190%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +218%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +313%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +280%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +198%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2033 history records