Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C1 0xc15e…8c19 sports 30 markets active 7d ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-28%) realized −$25 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$4
other 36% −$6
crypto 26% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-56.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -88.9% -90.0% 0% 0% -86.6%
≤90d 26 -51.6% -56.2% 19% 15% -49.2%
all 26 -51.6% -56.2% 19% 15% -49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.2% 15% -49.2%
10% -60.4% 15% -54.1%
15% -64.3% 4% -58.5%
20% -67.8% 4% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage70d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Raptors May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic May 19 $3 −$2 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 8? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $2 $0 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 6? Apr 05 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 5? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -78%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-03? Apr 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 5? Apr 04 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -88%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $1 $0 -26%
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? Apr 02 $4 +$3 +72%
Blues vs. Kings Apr 02 $1 $0 +27%
Ducks vs. Sharks Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 02 $1 $0 +30%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 01 $1 $0 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 5? Apr 01 $1 $0 -1%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $2 $0 -6%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 71d
Rockets vs. Warriors SELL Rockets 56¢ $2 72d
Rockets vs. Warriors BUY Rockets 70¢ $2 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 6? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 72d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 5? SELL Yes $0 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 6? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 5? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on April 5? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 5? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 3? SELL Yes $0 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on April 3? BUY Yes $1 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 3? BUY Yes $1 74d
Magic vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 17¢ $1 74d
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 74d
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 74d
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 74d
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic SELL Dino Prizmic 79¢ $2 74d
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmic BUY Dino Prizmic 78¢ $2 74d
Will Elche CF win on 2026-04-03? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 74d
Spurs vs. Clippers SELL Clippers 40¢ $1 75d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 53¢ $1 75d
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers BUY Pelicans 43¢ $1 75d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 75d
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 75d
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.02 · official $21.02 (match) · 73 history records