Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C1
0xc15d…7be4
other · 50 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$42 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$42 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses9 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage610d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 0 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $27 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $74 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $69 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $132 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $66 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$7 +79%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $6 +$6 +93%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $10 +$10 +104%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 +$6 +75%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 02 $43 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $81 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 27 $81 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $13,593 −$13 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $242 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $335 −$5 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $485 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$13
politics 11% −$9
other 5% +$5
sports 1% −$25
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 14h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 32h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 35h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $11 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $11 4d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $15 11d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $27 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $67 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $67 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -24.5%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 39 -3.9% -13.0% 18% 10% -10.8%
all 50 -3.1% -12.3% 18% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 8% -9.8%
10% -20.7% 8% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 8% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 273 history records