Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C1
0xc15b…38af
world · 44 markets active 10d ago
0.0score
+$89,006 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$78,500 · open +$10,506
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$376,745
Realized+$78,500
Unrealized+$10,506
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses34 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$275
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage44d
Avg bet$77,764
Trades / day54.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 2 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$14,825
30 days+$17,569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 91¢ $301,913 $312,519 +$10,606 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $64,326 $64,226 −$100 (-0%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? Yes 50¢ $15,000 $0 −$15,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $21,250 −$3,750 -18%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $178,371 +$17,704 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5,577 +$870 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $17,380 +$4,620 +27%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $140,102 +$9,056 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $110,505 +$10,066 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $12,370 +$3,489 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $244 +$24 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $28,888 +$926 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $15,000 −$15,000 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $53,157 +$5,012 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $364,869 −$38,192 -10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $110,448 +$7,246 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $4,600 −$1,100 -24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 22 $431 +$15 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $29,793 −$1,428 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $82,157 +$3,517 +4%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $118,054 +$7,157 +6%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,850 +$7,133 +386%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $13,586 +$1,830 +14%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $6,269 −$3,774 -60%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $29,559 +$549 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $98,300 +$1,600 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 12 $10,500 −$3,622 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $213,744 +$4,944 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6,077 +$4,223 +70%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $89,876 +$1,631 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $48,250 +$1,750 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 08 $4,250 +$250 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $186,160 −$2,130 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $7,873 +$177 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $184,949 +$1,719 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $18,382 +$157 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $180,069 +$4,700 +3%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 26 $91,732 +$301 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $94,810 +$383 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 24 $13,109 +$1,087 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 24 $40,800 +$135 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $24,100 +$175 +1%
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx Apr 23 $19,097 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $293,323 +$38,161 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $85,495 +$6,891 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 97% +$79,571
finance 1% +$23
other 1% +$9,411
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48,107 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14,810 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6,081 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $21,190 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $450 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $606 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $64 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6,505 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,462 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $16,855 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17,451 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $253 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1,924 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4,810 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4,321 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4,917 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4,556 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26,324 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $21,684 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $53 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $4 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $22,400 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4,664 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7,991 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 23 +100.5% +81.4% 74% 22% -8.5%
≤90d 42 +57.0% +42.1% 81% 17% -7.2%
all 42 +57.0% +42.1% 81% 17% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover54.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.1% 17% -7.2%
10% +28.5% 12% -16.1%
15% ← realistic here +16.1% 7% -24.2%
20% +4.7% 7% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $376,745.14 · official $376,745.14 (match) · 2446 history records