Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc15b…2548 crypto 1499 markets active 6h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%883W / 566L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$0
14 days+$54
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$47
other 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 +1.1% -8.5% 60% 60% -9.5%
≤30d 745 +6.1% -4.0% 61% 61% -3.7%
≤90d 1449 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 60% -7.6%
all 1449 +2.9% -6.9% 61% 60% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 60% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 59% -16.4%
15% -23.9% 59% -24.5%
20% -31.4% 57% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses883 / 566
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1449 / 1499
History coverage75d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1449 Trades
no open positions (498 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +76%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 14h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 26h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 27h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 32h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 35h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 35h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 36h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 36h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.10 · official $9.97 · 2492 history records