Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C1 0xc15a…373c crypto 268 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$330 (+1%) realized +$323 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate74%198W / 69L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$403
7 days−$348
14 days−$296
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$120
politics 31% +$52
finance 10% +$133
other 4% $0
tech 3% +$4
world 1% −$22
sports 0% +$15
economics 0% −$10
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -49.3% -54.2% 25% 14% -15.4%
≤30d 105 -28.8% -35.5% 52% 9% -9.9%
≤90d 195 -15.1% -23.2% 70% 6% -9.3%
all 267 -3.1% -12.3% 74% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 15% -9.1%
10% -20.7% 12% -17.8%
15% -28.4% 11% -25.8%
20% -35.4% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$600
Realized+$323
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses198 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)267 / 268
History coverage238d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? No 98¢ 100¢ $593 $600 +$7 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +76%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 +$5 +34%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $37 +$4 +11%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $37 +$4 +12%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $11 +$10 +97%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $8 +$14 +172%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Suns vs. Jazz Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? Jun 19 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 28? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$2 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 3AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? Jun 19 $49 −$5 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 23? Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Jun 19 $52 −$46 -89%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 7? Jun 19 $233 −$233 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $570 +$10 +2%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$9 +448%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $594 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY No 89¢ $37 10h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $10 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $11 10h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $8 10h
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $12 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $9 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $12 10h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 90¢ $37 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 10h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $7 10h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $16 10h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? SELL No 1¢ $0 31h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? SELL No 1¢ $0 32h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $376 33h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? SELL No 1¢ $1 34h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $2 34h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $194 34h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 55¢ $3 2d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 55¢ $5 2d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 55¢ $2 2d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 10¢ $2 2d
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 96¢ $539 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $525 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 100¢ $523 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 1¢ $1 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 1¢ $1 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 1¢ $2 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $511 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $599.94 · official $599.94 (match) · 933 history records