Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C1 0xc15a…acac crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,478 (-14%) realized −$4,405 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%25W / 34L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$525per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$179
7 days+$191
14 days+$191
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$1,098
crypto 30% −$2,318
other 5% −$758
sports 2% −$60
politics 2% −$78
economics 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.1% -3.1% 47% 40% +3.6%
≤30d 15 +7.1% -3.1% 47% 40% +3.6%
≤90d 15 +7.1% -3.1% 47% 40% +3.6%
all 59 -3.6% -12.7% 42% 36% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 36% -22.3%
10% -21.1% 27% -29.7%
15% -28.7% 24% -36.5%
20% -35.7% 22% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$278 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$1,427
Realized−$4,405
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage244d
Avg bet$525
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 88¢ $1,500 $1,427 −$73 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $115 +$331 +288%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $188 −$170 -90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $69 +$11 +16%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $34 +$66 +197%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $90 −$19 -21%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $98 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $101 +$24 +23%
Will Virtus.pro Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Natus Vincere Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will L1GA TEAM Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 27 $13 +$10 +79%
Will MOUZ Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
First Blood in Game 1? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $497 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $22 +$25 +112%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Feb 23 $138 −$131 -95%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 08 $1,349 −$147 -11%
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? Jan 23 $148 −$113 -76%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $251 −$103 -41%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $849 −$601 -71%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Dec 27 $215 +$273 +127%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Dec 26 $1,185 +$25 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $1,462 −$902 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $511 −$149 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Dec 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $2,091 −$1,812 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Dec 24 $17 +$12 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 8PM ET Dec 24 $18 +$4 +20%
Andrii Yermak arrested by December 31? Dec 23 $948 −$682 -72%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 12 $9,906 +$1,456 +15%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? Dec 10 $150 −$74 -49%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 02 $201 +$7 +4%
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30? Dec 01 $2,001 −$1,533 -77%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 21 $2,456 −$2,072 -84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Nov 21 $385 +$937 +243%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 21 $1,185 +$1,037 +88%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Nov 20 $208 −$67 -32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? Nov 18 $702 +$536 +76%
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025? Nov 14 $50 −$28 -55%
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025? Nov 14 $60 −$46 -77%
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025? Nov 14 $100 −$56 -56%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15? Nov 14 $327 −$260 -79%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? Nov 13 $100 −$9 -9%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $121 −$121 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 13 $200 +$152 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Nov 11 $50 +$56 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 5PM ET Nov 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4PM ET Nov 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6PM ET Nov 09 $10 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $18 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $127 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 2h
Will Virtus.pro Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $50 30h
Will Natus Vincere Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will L1GA TEAM Qualify to The International 2026 SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will L1GA TEAM Qualify to The International 2026 SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will L1GA TEAM Qualify to The International 2026 SELL Yes 9¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 69¢ $14 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 20¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 70¢ $18 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 31¢ $19 3d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 42¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,426.63 · official $1,426.63 (match) · 663 history records