Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc157…5743 crypto 1335 markets active 0h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$98 (-2%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%880W / 454L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days−$272
14 days−$272
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$35
other 7% −$368
sports 2% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -27.5% -34.4% 38% 38% -63.6%
≤30d 9 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 33% -65.1%
≤90d 1323 +0.0% -9.5% 66% 66% -14.2%
all 1334 +0.1% -9.4% 66% 66% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 66% -14.1%
10% -18.1% 66% -22.3%
15% -26.0% 65% -29.8%
20% -33.3% 22% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses880 / 454
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1334 / 1335
History coverage163d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $57 +$43 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $86 −$86 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 +$13 +75%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 29m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $122 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $57 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $86 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $50 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 60¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 60¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.90 · official $4.90 (match) · 2716 history records