Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc150…2ad0 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$13 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$10
politics 19% −$4
sports 6% +$7
economics 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.2% +14.2% 25% 25% -8.2%
≤30d 17 +6.1% -4.0% 18% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 108 +1.7% -8.0% 13% 9% -9.5%
all 108 +1.7% -8.0% 13% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 9% -9.5%
10% -16.8% 9% -18.1%
15% -24.8% 8% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage89d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $120 $117 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $7 +$7 +105%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $396 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $173 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $241 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $70 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 30 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $191 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $188 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $191 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $354 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $189 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $190 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $327 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $192 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $399 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $349 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $204 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 03 $188 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $196 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $194 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $22 $0 +2%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $195 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $319 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $586 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 27 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $386 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $770 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $411 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $195 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $49 21h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 23h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 26h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $7 30h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $120 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 8d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 8d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $30 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $30 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 16d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 16d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 16d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $28 19d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 19d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $39 19d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $39 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $29 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $29 20d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 22d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.24 · official $210.24 (match) · 317 history records