Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc14f…df67 other 126 markets active 5d ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$314 (+89%) realized +$312 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%38W / 80L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$351
other 22% +$40
finance 14% −$27
sports 13% −$35
crypto 5% $0
politics 5% −$10
economics 3% −$6
culture 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +23.5% +11.7% 33% 33% +13.3%
≤30d 10 +62.1% +46.6% 30% 30% +34.1%
≤90d 55 +10.2% -0.3% 31% 31% +104.5%
all 118 +3.7% -6.2% 32% 32% +77.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 32% +77.2%
10% -15.2% 30% +60.2%
15% -23.3% 28% +44.7%
20% -30.9% 24% +30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +126% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×6.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.09 per $1 lost it wins $3.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$312
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses38 / 80
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)118 / 126
History coverage471d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 35¢ 59¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+69%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $1 +$8 +780%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Malta be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 28 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $21 +$8 +40%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1 +$10 +955%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 22 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 21 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $4 −$1 -31%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 12 $14 −$8 -55%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $2 +$4 +193%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $31 +$278 +896%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $20 +$50 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 06 $2 +$1 +31%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -98%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $15 +$4 +30%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 02 $3 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 5d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 25¢ $1 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $1 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 74¢ $9 11d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 29d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Malta be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No $1 30d
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 30d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Alexei Popyrin $5 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Alexei Popyrin $15 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 49d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $1 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.31 · official $19.31 (match) · 258 history records