Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc14c…f8af sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$241 (-6%) realized −$328 · open +$87
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$162
7 days−$124
14 days−$278
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$407
other 16% +$77
crypto 1% +$87
politics 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -31.4% -37.9% 22% 22% -14.3%
≤30d 21 -33.4% -39.7% 24% 24% -19.5%
≤90d 24 -41.7% -47.3% 21% 21% -22.1%
all 24 -41.7% -47.3% 21% 21% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.3% 21% -22.1%
10% -52.3% 21% -29.5%
15% -56.9% 21% -36.3%
20% -61.1% 21% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 94% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$100 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$1,131
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$87
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage392d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $569 $670 +$101 (+18%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 17¢ 16¢ $475 $461 −$14 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $131 −$128 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $154 −$150 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $294 +$734 +250%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $169 −$166 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$32 +124%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $256 −$250 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 23 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$57 +256%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $350 +$721 +206%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $101 −$99 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Mar 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Mar 30 $51 −$51 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 17¢ $487 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia $103 15h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 31¢ $131 17h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $153 23h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 19¢ $154 23h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 34¢ $169 40h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 14¢ $103 40h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $294 43h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 18¢ $102 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 25¢ $102 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 26¢ $153 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $21 2d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 23¢ $205 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 21¢ $51 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $102 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $102 5d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $51 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $1,072 5d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $350 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $101 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $150 8d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $583 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 87d
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $50 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,130.67 · official $1,130.67 (match) · 56 history records