Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc14a…069f sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$6,909 (+45%) realized +$6,924 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$1,392per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$6,909
politics 3% −$8
other 3% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 +32.4% +19.8% 75% 62% +33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.8% 62% +33.8%
10% +8.3% 50% +21.0%
15% -2.1% 50% +9.3%
20% -11.7% 50% -1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,530 vs −$1,135 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.04 per $1 lost it wins $4.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$476
Realized+$6,924
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage226d
Avg bet$1,392
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $276 $274 −$2 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $108 $102 −$6 (-5%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 57¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 42¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 20 $38 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Celtics Dec 20 $141 +$159 +113%
Canucks vs. Devils Dec 15 $2,760 +$3,240 +117%
76ers vs. Hawks Dec 15 $4,960 +$3,040 +61%
Cavaliers vs. Wizards Dec 14 $2,700 +$300 +11%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Dec 14 $1,560 +$2,440 +156%
76ers vs. Bucks Nov 20 $1,248 −$1,248 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Mi Nov 13 $1,022 −$1,022 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $103 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $279 1h
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 150d
Pistons vs. Celtics BUY Pistons 47¢ $141 194d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $367 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $11 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $1,240 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $3 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $992 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $930 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $311 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $8 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $3 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $3 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $17 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $36 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $8 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $42 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $44 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $11 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $33 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $64 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $5 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $64 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $45 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $33 195d
76ers vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 62¢ $24 195d
Canucks vs. Devils BUY Canucks 46¢ $4 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $476.03 · official $476.03 (match) · 275 history records