Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc149…da10 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28 (+2%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day60.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.8% -16.6% 75% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 12 -7.8% -16.6% 75% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 12 -7.8% -16.6% 75% 0% -7.6%
all 12 -7.8% -16.6% 75% 0% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 0% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 0% -16.5%
15% -31.9% 0% -24.5%
20% -38.5% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$41 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day60.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $175 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $235 −$121 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $95 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $81 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $90 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $126 +$4 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $52 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $204 +$14 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $253 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $95 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $42 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $76 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $37 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $24 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $87 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $95 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $90 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $81 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $83 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records