Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:10:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc148…13d0 sports 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-7%) realized −$54 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%100W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$17
14 days−$16
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$51
other 37% −$47
crypto 2% −$22
politics 1% +$1
world 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +10.9% +0.4% 54% 54% -4.9%
≤30d 209 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 47% -17.1%
≤90d 211 -10.2% -18.7% 47% 46% -17.3%
all 211 -10.2% -18.7% 47% 46% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 46% -17.3%
10% -26.5% 43% -25.2%
15% -33.6% 36% -32.5%
20% -40.1% 29% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses100 / 111
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)211 / 217
History coverage33d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 48¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+57%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 47¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $3 +$5 +172%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $5 +$6 +121%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $5 +$7 +149%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $5 +$21 +413%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $10 +$7 +67%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $8 +$2 +24%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $10 +$2 +18%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $5 +$5 +99%
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 08 $6 +$1 +21%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $5 −$1 -23%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $7 −$7 -99%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $4 +$4 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $4 $0 -4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas SELL Leo Raquillet 100¢ $11 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Remy Bertola 52¢ $10 2h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Leo Raquillet 46¢ $5 2h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 47¢ $6 2h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux SELL Cosme de Ravel 99¢ $11 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Anastasia Kulikova 36¢ $3 5h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 31¢ $5 5h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch SELL Grigor Dimitrov 99¢ $7 5h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 99¢ $7 5h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 74¢ $5 6h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 46¢ $2 6h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 81¢ $5 6h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Grigor Dimitrov 66¢ $5 6h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Cosme de Ravel 44¢ $5 6h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $11 6h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 100¢ $26 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 63¢ $3 6h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 19¢ $5 6h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 39¢ $5 6h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 42¢ $2 31h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus BUY Lin Zhu 80¢ $1 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.69 · official $105.69 (match) · 393 history records