Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc146…47ce other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%39W / 44L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$19
other 22% −$6
politics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 22 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 0% -9.2%
all 83 -1.8% -11.1% 47% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses39 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage460d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 78¢ $167 $168 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $117 −$4 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $203 +$5 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $182 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$1 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $346 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $436 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $166 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $358 +$4 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1,086 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $131 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $224 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $163 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 27 $5 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $1,934 +$2 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $138 +$6 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $160 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $154 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $842 +$8 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 12 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $3 $0 -5%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 -7%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $4 $0 -3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 16 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $99 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $68 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $7 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $184 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $185 26h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $1 36h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $18 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $15 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $34 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $114 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $117 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $3 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $63 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $51 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $12 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $100 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $156 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $26 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $182 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $91 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $91 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $183 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $183 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $80 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $87 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.18 · official $168.18 (match) · 305 history records