Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc13f…eddc other 166 markets active 1d ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,527 (-1%) realized −$1,527 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%36W / 129L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,125per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$19
14 days+$81
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$253
politics 35% −$72
sports 11% −$1,200
economics 7% −$11
culture 2% −$5
world 2% −$14
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +8.5% -1.8% 17% 11% -9.2%
≤90d 99 -9.2% -17.8% 7% 4% -11.0%
all 165 +4.4% -5.6% 22% 15% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 15% -10.3%
10% -14.6% 14% -18.9%
15% -22.9% 13% -26.7%
20% -30.4% 11% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,591) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$21 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized−$1,527
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses36 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage157d
Avg bet$1,125
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $412 $412 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $5,773 −$6 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,908 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,135 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $793 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,890 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,018 −$5 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,695 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $2,295 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $1,095 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $80 +$64 +79%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $77 +$61 +79%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,495 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $379 +$1 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,170 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $548 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $536 +$1 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $645 −$1 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $66 +$47 +70%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,404 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $901 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $61 +$45 +73%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,295 −$2 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $2,342 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,714 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $2,341 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,002 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,252 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $1,425 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,115 26h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 28h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $869 28h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $870 31h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 31h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $880 34h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $791 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $793 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,219 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,221 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $412 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,369 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,371 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $968 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $969 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 7d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,489 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,491 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,692 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,695 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,169 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,171 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,037 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,039 9d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,542 9d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,544 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,095 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,097 10d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,093 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.63 · official $411.63 (match) · 499 history records