Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc13c…3208 crypto 1239 markets active 16h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$843 (-16%) realized −$843 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate70%863W / 376L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$61
14 days−$55
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$468
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 -11.1% -19.6% 53% 23% -14.6%
≤30d 940 -4.4% -13.5% 75% 15% -16.5%
≤90d 1239 -4.8% -13.9% 70% 20% -17.4%
all 1239 -4.8% -13.9% 70% 20% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 20% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 14% -25.3%
15% -29.7% 11% -32.5%
20% -36.6% 8% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$843
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses863 / 376
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1239 / 1239
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1239 Trades
no open positions (98 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$5 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$5 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records