Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C1 0xc13b…87bd sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$562 (+14%) realized +$562 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$669
other 7% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -39.5% -45.3% 24% 24% +20.4%
≤30d 21 -39.5% -45.3% 24% 24% +20.4%
≤90d 21 -39.5% -45.3% 24% 24% +20.4%
all 21 -39.5% -45.3% 24% 24% +20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.3% 24% +20.4%
10% -50.5% 24% +8.9%
15% -55.3% 24% -1.6%
20% -59.7% 14% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$483 vs −$121 · ×4.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage5d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs HULIGANI 38¢ 38¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 28¢ 28¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $112 +$190 +169%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $614 +$1,886 +307%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $386 −$379 -98%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $431 −$45 -10%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $409 −$330 -81%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $505 +$227 +45%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $619 −$508 -82%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $91 −$82 -90%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $72 −$70 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $75 −$74 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $162 −$7 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $53 +$26 +49%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $75 −$73 -97%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $86 +$87 +101%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $71 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 28¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 38¢ $51 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 44¢ $15 11h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 34¢ $51 12h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $61 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 13h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 24¢ $614 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 40¢ $386 37h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 64¢ $387 37h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 70¢ $431 38h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL MODUS $68 38h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 27¢ $409 38h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $732 40h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $505 41h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy $110 41h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual SELL Enjoy $9 41h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner SELL Enjoy $96 41h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 45¢ $508 42h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Enjoy 53¢ $203 43h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY Enjoy 52¢ $91 43h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $72 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 48¢ $75 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $71 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 36¢ $82 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 65¢ $74 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 70¢ $81 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 4d
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan $10 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.73 · official $64.73 (match) · 38 history records