Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc13b…a379 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$18
other 22% +$2
finance 3% $0
politics 3% +$1
sports 2% −$6
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 14 -2.9% -12.1% 21% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 14 -2.9% -12.1% 21% 0% -13.0%
all 35 -2.4% -11.7% 31% 6% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 6% -12.8%
10% -20.1% 3% -21.1%
15% -27.8% 3% -28.8%
20% -34.9% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage469d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $21 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $85 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $56 −$15 -28%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $5 $0 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $13 $0 -1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 05 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 04 $7 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 04 $8 $0 -2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 03 $2 $0 -4%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $5 −$1 -12%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $10 $0 -1%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 12 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 40m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $20 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $21 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $28 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $6 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $37 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $37 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $41 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $41 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 38¢ $27 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 44¢ $56 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records