Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc13a…25e8 politics 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$462per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$8
sports 16% −$5
crypto 15% −$1
other 12% −$2
tech 7% −$1
world 7% $0
culture 5% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 +0.0% -9.5% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 35 +0.0% -9.5% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$942) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage82d
Avg bet$462
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $979 −$2 -0%
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el Jun 24 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $966 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $980 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 23 $1,025 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 23 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $1,078 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $942 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 25 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial May 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $787 −$2 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $813 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 22 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 20 $800 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 18? May 19 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 18 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026? Apr 08 $99 $0 -0%
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jonas Sulzbach win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 03 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 03 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $977 1h
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el SELL No 100¢ $66 1h
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $943 1h
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el BUY No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general el BUY No 100¢ $24 2h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 2h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $720 2h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $258 2h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $980 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 21h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 21h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $11 21h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,013 21h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $23 21h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $11 21h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 22h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $795 22h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 22h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $243 22h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 22h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,047 43h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? SELL No 100¢ $40 43h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 43h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,022 44h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 44h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 44h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 44h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $688 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records