Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C1 0xc13a…5840 world 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+1%) realized +$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 45L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$53
world 36% +$31
sports 17% +$4
politics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 27 +6.3% -3.8% 56% 11% -8.6%
≤90d 40 +54.2% +39.5% 48% 10% -9.0%
all 83 +27.5% +15.3% 46% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.3% 7% -8.8%
10% +4.3% 6% -17.5%
15% -5.8% 5% -25.5%
20% -15.0% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.12 per $1 lost it wins $5.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage491d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $32 +$3 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $176 −$1 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $175 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $54 +$3 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $377 −$1 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $178 +$4 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $118 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $169 +$1 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $328 +$2 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $16 +$13 +79%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $313 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $507 +$9 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $173 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $14 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $297 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $201 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $108 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $87 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $150 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $489 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $147 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $7 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $16 +$10 +62%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $137 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $137 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $72 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $136 −$2 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $169 −$9 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $133 −$2 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,092 +$4 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $1,092 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $993 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $1,070 +$22 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $1,070 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Dec 10 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on June 6? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 45% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $146 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $82 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $79 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $19 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $156 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $154 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $21 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $57 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $54 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $190 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $190 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $48 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $74 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $120 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.48 · official $0.00 · 366 history records