Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc139…e4e0 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,522 (-10%) realized −$1,494 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$44
14 days−$1,966
30 days−$2,279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$1,598
other 15% −$175
sports 4% −$133
world 2% −$17
crypto 0% −$15
culture 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -61.8% -65.5% 33% 33% -81.1%
≤30d 14 -26.4% -33.4% 21% 21% -29.0%
≤90d 32 -35.3% -41.5% 25% 25% -23.1%
all 44 -21.1% -28.6% 34% 30% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 30% -22.1%
10% -35.5% 25% -29.6%
15% -41.7% 20% -36.4%
20% -47.4% 18% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$108 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$661
Realized−$1,494
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)44 / 53
History coverage159d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $139 $137 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 88¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+40%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $32 −$38 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$44 +146%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $9,439 −$1,893 -20%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $358 −$50 -14%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $103 −$11 -10%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 01 $23 −$4 -17%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $280 −$148 -53%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $166 +$42 +25%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $48 −$29 -60%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $8 −$2 -27%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 10 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 05 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 15, 2026? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Apr 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Apr 28 $65 −$65 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic Apr 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 21 $1,336 +$945 +71%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $581 −$355 -61%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 09 $160 −$134 -84%
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 05 $15 −$14 -96%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Feb 05 $24 −$2 -10%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $50 +$12 +24%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 29 $4 $0 +4%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Jan 28 $40 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 25 $130 +$16 +12%
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jan 19 $10 +$10 +99%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $50 +$25 +50%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026? Jan 14 $50 +$31 +63%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 202 Jan 14 $62 −$2 -4%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 14, 2026? Jan 13 $98 −$36 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 33¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $20 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $25 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 53¢ $30 7d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 63¢ $30 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $51 8d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $50 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $249 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 43¢ $511 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 42¢ $512 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 41¢ $2 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 41¢ $30 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 41¢ $141 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 41¢ $96 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 41¢ $158 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 41¢ $0 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 41¢ $19 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 39¢ $108 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 41¢ $331 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 41¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $660.75 · official $661.38 (match) · 231 history records