Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:11:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

C1 0xc132…c5f0 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate70%7W / 3L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$99per market

Trades / day34.2pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+15.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+27.9%	+15.7%	70%	60%	+33.9%
≤30d	10	+27.9%	+15.7%	70%	60%	+33.9%
≤90d	10	+27.9%	+15.7%	70%	60%	+33.9%
all	10	+27.9%	+15.7%	70%	60%	+33.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover34.2 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+15.7%	60%	+33.9%
10% ← realistic here	+4.6%	60%	+21.1%
15%	-5.5%	60%	+9.4%
20%	-14.8%	30%	-1.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$58 vs −$15 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.29 per $1 lost it wins $9.29

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$301

Realized−$13

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses7 / 3

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions5

Markets (closed)10 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$99

Trades / day34.2

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	19¢	19¢	$182	$185	+$3 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$41	$41	−$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$41	$41	+$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$22	$22	−$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$13	$12	−$2 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 26	$51	+$20	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 26	$37	+$18	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Jun 26	$52	+$22	+41%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$200	+$157	+79%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 AND Wil	Jun 26	$197	+$166	+84%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$22	−$1	-6%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	Jun 26	$14	+$17	+122%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$79	+$7	+8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$98	−$37	-38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	SELL Up	71¢	$71	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$25	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$26	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$5	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	SELL Down	52¢	$54	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$5	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$26	55m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$46	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	SELL Down	68¢	$46	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	SELL Down	53¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$26	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$12	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$38	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$13	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$23	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$42	1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$30	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	54¢	$98	1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	54¢	$98	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	19¢	$32	2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	8¢	$6	2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	7¢	$6	2h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	SELL Yes	76¢	$31	2h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$14	2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	22¢	$14	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$71	3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.19 · official $495.35 · 47 history records