Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc130…cecc other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,130 (-1%) realized −$1,129 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$930per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$13
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$653
politics 24% −$35
sports 11% −$1,777
culture 4% −$7
economics 4% −$2
world 3% −$3
crypto 2% +$6
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 48 -0.8% -10.3% 10% 2% -10.4%
all 136 -3.6% -12.8% 18% 9% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 9% -10.4%
10% -21.1% 9% -18.9%
15% -28.8% 7% -26.8%
20% -35.8% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,173) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$22 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$1,013
Realized−$1,129
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage164d
Avg bet$930
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $737 $737 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $276 $276 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $321 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $306 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $398 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $231 +$1 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,359 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,312 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $910 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,036 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,437 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $425 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $520 +$3 +1%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $326 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,127 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $524 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $2,140 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $1,472 −$2 -0%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 29 $1,490 −$1,490 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $5,881 −$6 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $5,341 −$5 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,605 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,683 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,270 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,390 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $2,351 −$2 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 11 $1,096 +$906 +83%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 05 $45 −$8 -19%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 28 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $1,862 −$2 -0%
Will Byeong Hun An win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $967 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 1h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 1h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 3h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $320 42h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $321 44h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $260 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $260 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $306 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $306 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $397 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $398 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $464 8d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $465 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $737 9d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,171 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,173 12d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $924 12d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $924 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $938 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $940 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $909 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $910 14d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,029 14d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,030 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,159 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,161 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 18d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,239 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,013.13 · official $1,013.13 (match) · 465 history records