Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc130…378e other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 37% −$13
sports 9% +$22
world 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$14
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -2.2% -11.5% 8% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 4% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage133d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $210 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $171 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $390 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $222 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $358 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $191 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $402 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $384 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $409 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $404 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $229 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $198 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $200 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $174 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $173 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $224 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 03 $157 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $413 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $219 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $176 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 27 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $384 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $348 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $155 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $209 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $406 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $424 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $174 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $339 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 18d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $210 24d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $210 26d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $217 26d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $217 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $182 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $182 28d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $171 28d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $171 29d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $204 29d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $204 29d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $222 29d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 29d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $217 29d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $217 30d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $190 31d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $190 33d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $203 33d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $203 33d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $191 34d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $191 34d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $177 34d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $177 34d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $179 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $23.99 (match) · 404 history records