Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc12f…6141 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$6
world 31% +$1
politics 12% +$1
economics 6% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.3%
all 42 -2.8% -12.1% 36% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.5% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage431d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $2 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $12 −$1 -5%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $58 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $29 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Primoz Roglic win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $11 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 2–9? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 05 $1 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $16 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $24 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $33 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $23 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $28 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $28 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $28 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $28 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $32 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records