Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc12f…3648 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,017 (-20%) realized +$18 · open −$1,035
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days+$236
14 days+$236
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$165
other 34% −$781
crypto 3% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 29% +13.1%
≤30d 8 -13.1% -21.4% 25% 25% +1.4%
≤90d 18 +9.7% -0.8% 39% 39% -11.0%
all 18 +9.7% -0.8% 39% 39% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 39% -11.0%
10% -10.2% 33% -19.5%
15% -18.9% 33% -27.3%
20% -26.9% 33% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$153 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$382
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$1,035
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage77d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $392 $379 −$13 (-3%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 22¢ $1,024 $2 −$1,022 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $110 −$27 -25%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$107 +107%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $114 −$110 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $151 −$147 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $171 −$19 -11%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $230 +$512 +223%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $113 −$109 -96%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $1,157 −$472 -41%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $220 +$615 +279%
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Apr 25 $118 +$121 +103%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr Apr 25 $106 +$13 +13%
Valorant: MIBR vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 18 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alp Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Apr 18 $54 +$81 +150%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 17 $112 +$175 +157%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $788 −$639 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $402 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 22¢ $1,048 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $82 21h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $83 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $207 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $11 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $151 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $152 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $58 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $113 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $742 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $230 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $110 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $113 17d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs SELL Fnatic 30¢ $595 42d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs SELL Fnatic 30¢ $90 42d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Fnatic 31¢ $204 42d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Fnatic 45¢ $119 42d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Fnatic 58¢ $834 42d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $835 42d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY FUT Esports 26¢ $220 43d
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 83¢ $239 55d
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 40¢ $118 55d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr SELL FURIA Esports $8 55d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr SELL FURIA Esports 41¢ $112 55d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr BUY FURIA Esports 19¢ $106 55d
Valorant: MIBR vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha BUY LOUD 15¢ $32 62d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 SELL Leviatán Esports 49¢ $136 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.54 · official $381.54 (match) · 49 history records